The number of pages within the document is: 68
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John R. Lott, Jr. and David R. Mustard
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CRIME,DETERRENCE,ANDRIGHT-TO-CARRY CONCEALEDHANDGUNS JOHNR.LOTT,JR.,andDAVIDB.MUSTARD* AbstractUsingcross-sectionaltime-seriesdataforU.S.countiesfrom1977to1992,we ®ndthatallowingcitizenstocarryconcealedweaponsdetersviolentcrimes,with- outincreasingaccidentaldeaths.Ifthosestateswithoutright-to-carryconcealedgun provisionshadadoptedthemin1992,county-andstate-leveldataindicatethatap- proximately1,500murderswouldhavebeenavoidedyearly.Similarly,wepredict thatrapeswouldhavedeclinedbyover4,000,robberybyover11,000,andaggra- vatedassaultsbyover60,000.Wealso®ndcriminalssubstitutingintoproperty crimesinvolvingstealth,wheretheprobabilityofcontactbetweenthecriminaland thevictimisminimal.Further,higherarrestandconvictionratesconsistentlyreduce crime.Theestimatedannualgainfromallremainingstatesadoptingtheselawswas atleast$5.74billionin1992.Theannualsocialbene®tfromanadditionalcon- cealedhandgunpermitisashighas$5,000. I.Introduction Willallowingconcealedhandgunsmakeitlikelythatotherwiselaw- abidingcitizenswillharmeachother?Orwillthethreatofcitizenscarrying weaponsprimarilydetercriminals?Tosome,thelogicisfairlystraightfor- ward.PhilipCookarguesthat“[i]fyouintroduceagunintoaviolenten- counter,itincreasesthechancethatsomeonewilldie.” 1Alargenumberof murdersmayarisefromunintentional®tsofragethatarequicklyregretted, andsimplykeepinggunsoutofpeople’sreachwouldpreventdeaths. 2Us-*TheauthorswouldliketothankGaryBecker,PhilCook,ClaytonCramer,Gertrud Fremling,EdGlaeser,HideIchimura,DonKates,GaryKleck,DavidKopel,WilliamLandes, DavidMcDowall,DerekNeal,BobReed,andDanPolsbyandtheseminarparticipantsat theCatoInstitute,UniversityofChicago,EmoryUniversity,FordhamUniversity,Harvard University,NorthwesternUniversity,StanfordUniversity,ValparaisoUniversity,American LawandEconomicsAssociationmeetings,AmericanSocietyofCriminology,andtheWest- ernEconomicAssociationmeetingsfortheirunusuallyhelpfulcomments.Lottwouldlike tothanktheLawandEconomicsprogramattheUniversityofChicagoLawSchoolforthe fundingthathereceivesastheJohnM.OlinVisitingLawandEconomicsFellow. 1Editorial,CincinnatiEnquirer,January23,1996,atA8. 2SeeP.J.Cook,TheRoleofFirearmsinViolentCrime,inCriminalViolence236±91 (M.E.Wolfgang&N.A.Wernereds.1982);andFranklinZimring,TheMediumIsthe [JournalofLegalStudies, vol.XXVI(January1997)] ã1997byTheUniversityofChicago.Allrightsreserved.0047-2530/97/2601-0001$01.50 1
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